Salmon Tipping Points: Fisherman Engagement

We used 19 key informant interviews with fishermen to design a survey with Gulf of Alaska commercial salmon permit holders. The interviews were conducted over zoom and interviewees were chosen to span a diversity of geographies, gear-types, ages, number of years of experience and cultural backgrounds. Through the interviews we collected insights from salmon fishermen and their observations of environmental change and concerns.

In the survey with all 2,335 Gulf of Alaska permit holders, leaving aside Cook Inlet and troll permit holders, we used a discrete choice experiment to present fishermen with various alternative future fishing and non-fishing scenarios. The scenarios were described by the salmon species to catch, price/lb, historic 5-year harvest, fish size in lbs, and an environmental descriptor, specifically jellyfish and phytoplankton blooms. The latter concerns were mentioned in previous interviews and included in the survey as a factor of environmental change. We then observed how fishermen picked among the scenarios which we used to forecast fishery participation given changes in price, and historic harvest by target species and changes in environmental factors. A total of 706 permit holders responded for a 31% response rate.

• There is widespread awareness of the risk of ocean acidification and climate impacts on salmon in Alaska
• Professional experiences with environmental change over time varied significantly
• With few exceptions, most of those interviewed thought salmon are well managed in AK in general. They did not see the need for radical changes to adequately manage stock collapse and generally felt we have the right tools in place
• Many offered specific management changes/suggestions for their area
• There were diverse opinions of hatcheries and management of them]
• Bycatch in federal fisheries, especially groundfish, was a common concern big issue
• Many were comfortable with the idea of fishing less (they have experienced it before and expect that through commercial fish emergency closures) and with other conservation action.
• While some concerns were raised, no interviewees offered suggestions outside of the current policy/governance framework despite multiple angles on the question.
• Observations on changes in fisheries included:
  • Decrease in size of (individual) fish and expectation that trend will continue
  • Timing of runs changing
  • Observations on size of the runs varied, especially by region
  • Changes in fish migration routes and spawning locations
  • Observations on changes in ocean conditions
  • Temperature increases (some dramatic)
  • Increased algae/slime and jelly fish

• Interviewees noted that assumptions/anticipation about how salmon abundance and ocean conditions will change over time have promoted adaptations such as diversification of gear types, targeting multiple species, expanding into mariculture operations, and garnering permits in other regions of Alaska.

• Historic resource availability and historic prices were the primary drivers of fishery participation decisions
• Environmental changes (jellyfish and phytoplankton blooms) were minor decision factors yet were of concern to fishermen for the long-term viability of their fishing businesses.
• Concerns about environmental changes and fish size were strongest in setnet fisheries, consistent with a lower ability to avoid algal blooms and adapt to smaller fish size.
• Algal and jellyfish blooms are mostly affecting set gillnetters resulting in additional operating costs that deserve more research.
• High capital intensity and consequently high fixed cost explain fisheries participation in the direst of circumstances (low prices and fish abundance), e.g. the Prince William Sound purse seine fishery.

Participation in fisheries determines the catch capacity of the fleet and ultimately how well the fleet can accomplish management objectives. Achieving escapement goals is in part relies on sufficient catch capacity to reduce run size by harvestable surplus, avoiding over-escapement. Over-escapement can lead to more fish competing on spawning grounds and more recruits competing for few freshwater resources before migrating to sea. We predict participation given a range of economic and ecological changes that can help managers better predict potential changes in fishing participation. In addition, fishing participation affects the resilience of fishing communities reliant on fishing-related income.